by Korman Tam
The dollar fell to its lowest level of the year as traders returned from the Labor Day holiday, relinquishing the 1.45-level against the euro and sliding to 1.6586 versus the British pound. Commodities continued to test higher at the start of the week, with spot gold breaching the key resistance level of $1,000 per ounce and crude oil firming above the $70 per barrel mark to $71.20. Meanwhile, the Asian equity bourses climbed higher overnight, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rallying by over 2% and the Shanghai Composite gaining by 1.7%.
The US economic calendar is light for most of this week as the majority of the releases are slated for Friday. Weekly jobless claims, which are due on Thursday, are expected to improve marginally to 560k from 570k a week prior. On Friday, the data to be released consists of July wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. The wholesale sales reading is estimated to edge up to 0.6% in July from 0.4% a month prior, while the wholesale inventory figure is seen posting a 1.0% decline, albeit improving from a decline of 1.7% previously. The preliminary reading for the September University of Michigan consumer confidence survey is largely unchanged, seen slipping marginally lower to 65.3 from 65.7 in August and the expectations component is estimated to ease to 64.2 from 65.0.
The euro jumped to its highest level in 2009 above the 1.45-level to 1.4534 as traders shifted back into riskier assets. Germany’s July trade surplus was better than expected, climbing by more than forecasts to 12.4 billion euros and beating out estimates for an improvement to 11.7 billion euros from 11.0 billion euros in June. In the coming session, traders will turn to Germany’s August HICP and CPI figures, due out at 2:00 AM.
EURUSD will encounter interim resistance at 1.4540, followed by 1.4570 and 1.46. Subsequent ceilings are eyed at 1.4630, backed by 1.4660 and 1.47. On the downside, support will start at 1.45, backed by 1.4450 and 1.44. Subsequent floors are seen at 1.4360, followed by 1.4320 and 1.43.
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