EUR/USD: Wave v of (c) may extend to 1.5000
The single currency did resume medium term upmove and our indicated upside target at 1.4910 has been met, price looks set to test psychological resistance at 1.5000 and later to 1.5159 (61.8% projection of 1.3747 to 1.4845 measuring from 1.4480), then towards 1.5280 (100% projection of 1.4045 to 1.4845 measuring from 1.4480).
Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (B) from 1.2329 is unfolding with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there is also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v is still in progress to aforesaid upside targets.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.4830/35 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.4700 should hold and bring such upmove. Only below 1.4670/75 would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed and bring correction towards 1.4480. A daily close below this level would confirm a temporary top is in place, then fall to 1.4300 and then 1.4200 would follow.
Looking ahead, if euro drops below support area at 1.4177-91, this would provide confirmation that wave v as well as wave (c) has ended and bring correction to 1.4045.
Euro's long-term uptrend started from 0.8228 (26 Oct 2000) with an impulsive structure. The rise from 0.8228 to 0.9593 (5 Jan 2001) is labeled as wave I, the retreat to 0.8352 (6 Jul 2001) is wave II and the rally to 1.3670 (31 Dec 2004) is wave III. Wave IV from there ended at 1.1640 (15 Nov 2005), the subsequent upmove to 1.6040 (July 15, 2008) is treated as wave V, the major selloff from the record high of 1.6040 to 1.2329 (October 27, 2008) signals a correction of the long-term uptrend has taken place with (A) leg ended at 1.2329 and once (B) wave finishes, wave (C) will take euro lower and below 1.2329 confirms and extends to 1.2136 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.2000.
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