The greenback did rebound last week in line with our expectation, reinforcing our view that a temporary low has been formed at 88.01 and mild upside bias remains for retracement to 91.75 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 88.01), however, a daily close above resistance at 92.55 resistance is needed to confirm the c leg as well as wave B has ended and bring stronger rise towards 94.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 97.79 to 88.01).
We are still keeping our previous preferred count that larger degree wave V has commenced from 124.14 with wave 1 ended at 87.10 and the wave 2 is unfolding with only A leg of wave 2 ended at 101.45 and the decline from there is treated as wave B sub-divided into a double three with first a-b-c ended at 93.85, followed by wave x at 98.90, then another set of a-b-c is unfolding with second a ended at 91.73, second b at 97.79 and second c leg has either ended at 88.23 or may extend one more fall to 88.07 (100% projection of 101.45 to 91.73 measuring from 97.79) and as long as support at 87.10 holds, prospect of another rise in C leg of wave 2 remains.
Our alternate count is that wave 2 ended at 101.45 and wave 3 has commenced from there with wave i ended at 91.73 followed by wave ii at 97.79 and wave iii is still in progress. Once support at 87.10 is broken, this would put this alternate count as our preferred count, then further weakness to 85.00 would be seen.
Looking ahead, a daily close above resistance at 95.07 would add credence to our count that the fall from 101.45 is still the B leg of wave 2, then gain to 96.00 and possibly towards resistance at 97.79 would be seen. Above resistance at 97.79 would confirm the C leg of wave 2 is unfolding for headway towards 99.80-100.00 psychological level and break there would extend rise towards 101.45 and eventual upside target for this C wave of 2 would be 105.62 (50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 from 124.14 to 87.10).
On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle is taking place with wave 1 ended at 87.10 earlier this year in January and wave 2 should falter well below 110.67 resistance and bring wave 3 in 2010. Once support at 87.10 is broken, the major downtrend should resume for fall to 85.00, 82.00 but the major low at 79.75 should hold on first attempt.
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